Growth is a choice

Mid-sized transport and logistics companies are at a pivotal crossroads. The sector is evolving rapidly, driven by technology, sustainability requirements and a wave of consolidation.  

In this piece, corporate finance specialists Lorijn van Leersum, Jan Kreijkes and Bert Lippens from Baker Tilly (Netherlands) shine a spotlight on the Dutch transport and logistics sector. They explore how mid-sized Dutch companies must decide whether to invest aggressively to grow independently, pursue selective partnerships and acquisitions, or join a larger group.  

Each path offers opportunities but also requires clear priorities and conviction. 

M&A vs. organic 

When it comes to expansion, mid-sized transports and logistics companies have two primary routes: buy and build or autonomous growth. 

Buy and build allows companies to scale fast, access new markets, unlock synergies and gain access to new talent and technology that may be difficult to develop internally. 

But it comes with challenges: integration risks, higher leverage, more complexity and greater management demands. 

Autonomous growth, on the other hand, preserves stability, control and corporate culture while typically keeping financial risks lower.  

The downside is slower expansion and a higher risk of falling behind in a scale-driven market. Success here depends on differentiation. Companies must clearly define their niche, service quality or technological advantage. 

Many firms find the sweet spot in a hybrid approach, primarily organic growth, complemented by selective, strategic acquisitions.  

This approach balances speed, stability and opportunity, offering both independence and scale where it counts. 

But decisions taken today need to be mindful of what tomorrow may look like.  

Proactive vs. reactive 

By 2030, the transport and logistics sector will look markedly different.  

Some players will have scaled rapidly and embraced new technologies, while others will operate in specialised niches or alliances. Understanding these possibilities is crucial when deciding whether to build, partner or sell. 

We see three plausible scenarios shaping the next five to ten years. Each scenario presents distinct opportunities and challenges, and knowing them helps companies act decisively rather than reactively. 

1. Acceleration 
   Stricter climate and digital regulations, combined with declining technology costs, widen the gap between large, scaled players and mid-sized firms that struggle to keep pace. Consolidation accelerates, making the timing of acquisitions or exits increasingly critical. 

2. Delay 
   Economic or political headwinds temporarily slow transformation. This creates more room for independent operations and alliances, but late movers risk lower valuations or missed strategic windows when momentum returns. 

3. Divergence by niche or region 
   Consolidation accelerates in some segments, such as city logistics, e-commerce and e-fulfilment, while others, like heavy transport or agricultural niches, remain fragmented. Large international players dominate core regions, while local alliances gain strength elsewhere. The outcome is a hybrid market of professional groups and specialised clusters. 

Across all scenarios, one thing is consistent: consolidation is structural, not temporary.  

The sector is reorganising around two complementary models: a smaller number of large, professional groups able to invest in sustainability, digitalisation and talent, and a network of agile, specialised players operating independently or through co-operative alliances.

Making a choice 

For mid-sized Dutch logistics entrepreneurs, the key question is no longer if change is coming, but how to respond. Strategic clarity and timely decision-making are essential.  

Companies must actively choose one of three paths. 

1. Build – invest to grow independently, scale operations and future-proof the business. 

2. Partner – co-operate or selectively acquire to gain scale, market access or new capabilities. 

3. Sell – join a larger group to capitalise on current value and secure continued growth within a bigger platform. 

Each path is valid, but the wrong timing or indecision may limit options.  

The market increasingly favours companies that choose early and act deliberately, rather than those forced to react under pressure. 

By understanding the trade-offs between M&A, organic growth and hybrid strategies, and by keeping a sharp eye on emerging market scenarios, entrepreneurs can turn challenges into opportunities and uncertainty into sustainable growth.

Read Baker Tilly (Netherlands) full white paper (in Dutch) on the strategic consideration for Dutch transport operators.